New Mexico Supercomputing Challenge

Bubonic plague infection

Team: 40

School: Cottonwood Valley

Area of Science: Medicine and Health


Interim: Problem:
The question is: will the plague be dominant??

A more detailed explanation of the problem would be:
in an isolated area (the display part of NetLogo) would the bubonic plague be
dominant over the people or would it die off? if so what impact would
it have (the amount of people killed)? This would be important because
it would prove useful to know this to see if we should worry about the plague,
especially because the bubonic plague has effected 3 people this year! So my model
could prove useful.

Plan:
I will use netlogo to solve the problem mentioned above. The program will create
a variable amount of people, then a variable amount of rats. Then instead of having
a flea entity, I will have the program calculate the distance between the two entities
and if the entity is close there will be a chance that the first entity be infected if the other is.
The change will be based on the “population” of fleas. I will also try to
include a “doctors office” where the model people might go to get cured of the
plague (this makes sense as the bubonic plague is a bacterial infection). I will also try
to include the ability for “houses” the would slightly change the chance
of the person to infected by the bubonic plague.

Progress:
I have not gotten too much progress as of yet, just a basic framework of the program. So far,
I have a simple system to infect entities based on other entities, like I mentioned above. As well,
I have a plan, and an interim report. A bit of progress that I made would be that I can use NetLogo
relatively well, so I would not really need to learn the basics, as I already know the a little
bit of the basics of NetLogo. Other than that I do not have much more progress, but I think I
have the hardest part done, thinking of a project.

Results I expect to get:
I expect that the plague will not be dominant, as long as there are not too many infected
rats from the start. I expect the most per-infected rats there could be without the plague
being dominant would be about 5. As all aspects would be variable, that 5 would easily be changed,
but at a reasonable flea “population” rate, I would expect 5 to be the maximum per-infected rats.



Citations:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague

http://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/local_news/article_f32e5799-2ddc-56f6-9915- ac30aa00962f.html

http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/docs/

http://www.cdc.gov/plague/faq/

http://www.who.int/topics/plague/en/


Team Members:

  Liam Ryan

Sponsoring Teacher: Crystal Cobble

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