The Movement of the Plague
School: Centennial High
Area of Science: Plagues/Travel
Team Number: 018
School Name: Centennial High School
Area of Science: Plague/Travel
Project Title: The Movement of the Plague
Problem Definition: A major problem in the world are: Plagues. Plagues have been puzzling people from the beginning of time. Nowadays people have a much better understanding of plagues, but some things continue to elude us: When will the next plague strike and where can it spread? There have been many attempts to solve this as according to the CDC, but many have been too “unrealistic”.
We are trying to solve the latter of these questions by creating a complex computer model that creates a virus somewhere in the world and letting it spread by land, sea, and air. I collected real life data from all over the world, gathering information on the amount of planes that fly out of airports, boats out of ports, and people in and out of countries.
Problem Solution: This constitutes a real life simulation of a plague spreading through multiple pathogens. The plague can spread to new “hosts” both traveling and non-traveling the hosts who are traveling spread the infection to new places. When a host goes to a new country, another non-traveler and a traveler are infected (or more depending in the Average Rate of Infection (ARI)).
Progress to Date: The map is created showing a world with airports, ports, and different countries. The code is in its first stage with planes and boats coming out of arranged ports at arranged times. We do not have enough data for the cross-country infections as I am still waiting for people to call back with data from 2012 travel data.
Expected results: We expect to have a complete working model by February after alpha and an open beta test on the internet that can compute infection rates and produce a simulation of a plague spreading to different places determined by how many people are infected on average by one person.
Sponsoring Teacher: Melody Hagaman
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