The Juro Project
School: Socorro High
Area of Science: virology
Interim: Team Number: 147
School Name: Socorro High School
Area of Science: Virology
Project name: The Juro Project
The H1N1 virus has infected thousands of people across the United States and was an extreme danger to the young and elderly. The influenza virus mutates at such a rapid rate that creating a vaccine and modeling an outbreak has become a problem to some national medical industries. Hundreds of new strains of the influenza virus threaten our state's well being every year. This has led to research that is needed to develop a vaccine that can keep up with new influenza virus mutations.
By the time the CDC predicts an outbreak, it might be too late for medical industries to create a vaccine that can help control and cleanse the outbreak. Our goal in this project to model the spread of an influenza outbreak in different environments and different situations so that you may be able to better model an outbreak across the nation and during different flu seasons.
The models we will simulate allow us to better understand virology and the influenza virus. We will model the environments in situations such as but not limited to: cold climate, warm climate, city environment, rural environment, suburban environment, etc. Hopefully, the computational models we present will allow us to make predictions for viruses and outbreaks.
Progress to Date:
We began researching numbers of infected with the influenza virus in different towns in New Mexico. We have derived an algorithm from the graphed researched material and began to run a probability simulator using Java JDK. We currently have a single situation in which our algorithm uses a basic equation of probability to find the number of infected after a number of days. We will soon add variables to the algorithm to display how the variable (Juro) reacts to different environments.
After programming, testing and modeling, we expect to find that the influenza is a rapid spreading disease. It will most likely spread faster in colder environments. It will also spread more efficiently in the city environments as opposed to the rural environments. This will allow us to try and predict where outbreaks will most likely happen and be able to have a time frame where you need to apply the vaccine in order to control a relatively dangerous outbreak. We will also most likely find that an influenza virus is extremely lethal that it will burn itself out and not spread as quickly as a virus that sleeps for an amount of time and then becomes lethal.
Student Names: Joseph Cutchall, Elias Flores, Dushan Gacanich, Nicholas Jones
Sponsor Teacher: Nancy Engler
Sponsoring Teacher: Nancy Engler
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