Military Decision Making

Team: 66

School: Los Alamos High

Area of Science: Behavioral and Social Sciences

Interim: Team 66
School: Los Alamos High School
Project: Military Decision Making

Problem:
With the modern day's increasingly advanced and expensive weaponry and federal budgets becoming much more constrained, accurate estimates of the likely benefit of new weapons research through modeling has become much more important. Originally, battle simulations were table top representations of battles, with people controlling all of the aspects of both armies. Today, with more advanced technology, most of these models are computer simulations. This makes them more accurate, as long as they are programmed correctly, and much more useful because of the ability to have a larger and more complex model. The goal of our project is to determine what path is best to follow to increase the effectiveness of our armies in the most efficient way possible.

Solution:
Based on the studies of others who compare various software package capabilities in doing simulations of this type, we chose Netlogo. Netlogo was found to be very fast, good at making agents and very flexible at modeling complex systems. We will make an agent-based Netlogo model portraying two armies converging on a battlefield. We will include incremental weapons advancements and their efficiency on a battlefield, and the support of the indigenous population based on the effects of the army on them. We will then estimate the cost of the weapons advancement and impact on the surrounding populace. The results we are hoping to obtain from this project are: which advancements will be the most useful for the military to pursue based on their efficiency and cost, and how important it is to have the support of the native people when we are at war in their lands against a common enemy.

Progress:
We have created a model with one type of soldier and two armies that fight each other. A basic terrain is present, although, at this time, it is completely random and the soldiers do not have any path finding capabilities programmed yet. The terrain gives soldiers standing in it a defensive bonus based on the color of the patch. There is also a civilian support variable in the model, but it does not affect anything yet. The soldiers walk towards each other in a basic line formation and they retreat when they have one-third or less of their army remaining.

Expected Results:
From this project, we hope to develop a framework for estimating the effectiveness of weapons systems improvements and their cost to help in military decision making. The decision on which research path to pursue will be based on the estimated improvement in new the weapon systems, how well it protects our own troops, and the estimated cost of the new systems. We also hope to be able to decide on the best course of action to take to reduce the impact of the battle on a native population, and on how much the support of this population affects a battle.



References:

"Battle Simulation." UVA Computer Science - UVA Computer Science. Web. 10 Dec. 2009. http://www.cs.virginia.edu/cs201j-fall2002/problem-sets/ps5/battle/.

Berryman, Matthew. Review of Software Platforms for Agent Based Models. Rep. Edinburgh South Australia: Land Operations Division, Defense Science and Technology Organisation, 2008. Print.

Distributed Battle Simulation Program (DBSP). Web. 11 Dec. 2009. http://www.dbsp-online.com/cont.htm.

Hoebar, F. P. Military Applications of Modeling: Selected Case Studies.New York: Gordon and Breach, 1981. Print.

"Modeling the Chaos of Battle." Booz Allen Hamilton: A Strategy and Technology Consulting Firm. Web. 10 Dec. 2009. http://www.boozallen.com/consulting-services/services_article/1440526.

Team Members:
Thomas Henderson
Jack Mockler
Simon Redman
Marie-Luise Schmidt

Team Members:

  Marie-Luise Schmidt
  Jack Mockler
  Thomas Henderson
  Simon Redman

Sponsoring Teacher: Lee Goodwin

Mail the entire Team